The Psychology of Speculation by Henry Howard Harper

At this time (1915) the major portion of the civilized world was / embroiled in a mad turmoil, employing every known device and resource / in destroying human life and every form of physical property. With the / very foundations of civilization thus disrupted, and our own country / on the verge of being drawn into a deadly combat in which the most / humane and enlightened nations of the earth were reverting to the / practices of ancient barbarism, it is not strange that our merchant / friend should have argued that it was a most unpromising situation upon / which to construct investment values and business prosperity. It was / inconsistent, inconceivable and seemingly impossible that stocks, even / good stocks, could continue to advance in the face of such demoralizing / conditions. When war was first declared, even before England became / involved, the stock market was thrown into such a violent state of / panic that it became necessary to close the stock exchange for several / months; yet now when the clouds of disaster were at their darkest and / hung menacingly over the whole of civilization this country alone was / indulging in a riotous exhibition of prosperity such as had never been / dreamed of.

The market tipsters, the financial editors of newspapers, / the brokers' letters and all stock market literature, with but few / exceptions, were crowing loud and boastfully for still higher prices, / and after the whole group of stocks had risen in unison for a time, / some individual stock was singled out every day or so, pushed into the / forefront and skyrocketed to dizzying heights. The brokers and all the / customers were delirious with joy and excitement. The stock brokers / were all bulls, the traders were bulls, the tipsters and rumor-mongers / were bulls -- even the office boys who called the quotations from / the tickers were bulls, and shouted vociferously when some special / stock jumped a point or more from the previous quotation; and it / seemed to our trader that in calling out the advancing prices special / emphasis was always given to the particular stocks he was short of. / He was literally beset with bullish exultation and bullish news from / everywhere. The noisy enthusiasm in the board-room rankled in his ears / and rasped on his over-wrought nerves. He felt as one could imagine a / tiny lone bear would feel in the center of a great arena, surrounded by / a cordon of cavorting bulls. To him it seemed that he was the only bear / on earth. There might be others, but they were too cleverly sequestered / to admit of sharing his misery with them.